Bayesian Priors Prediction in Ze

Abstract

Sequential data prediction represents a fundamental challenge across multiple domains, from genomic analysis to clinical monitoring, requiring sophisticated approaches that balance predictive accuracy with computational efficiency. This paper introduces Ze, a novel hybrid system that integrates frequency-based counting with hierarchical Bayesian modeling to address the complex demands of sequential pattern recognition. The system's architecture employs dual-processor analysis with complementary beginning (forward) and inverse (backward) processing strategies, enabling comprehensive pattern discovery that captures both progressive sequences and symmetrical structures. At its core, Ze implements a three-layer hierarchical Bayesian framework that operates at individual, group, and context levels, facilitating multi-scale pattern recognition while naturally quantifying prediction uncertainty. The individual layer employs Beta-Binomial conjugate priors for sequential Bayesian updating, while the group layer enables knowledge transfer across related patterns through shared hyperparameters. The context layer incorporates temporal dependencies through configurable sequence memory, capturing crucial short-term patterns that significantly influence prediction accuracy. Implementation results demonstrate that the hierarchical Bayesian approach achieves an 8.3% accuracy improvement over standard Bayesian methods and 2.3× faster convergence through efficient knowledge sharing. The system maintains practical computational efficiency through sophisticated memory management, including automatic counter reset mechanisms and compact binary representations that reduce storage requirements by 45%. Ze's modular design and open-source availability ensure broad applicability across diverse domains including genomic sequence annotation, clinical time series forecasting, and real-time anomaly detection. The system represents a significant advancement in sequential data prediction methodology, combining statistical rigor with computational practicality to address complex pattern recognition challenges in scientific and clinical applications.